U.S. ag exports anticipated to increase by $59 billion
The United States expects to export more than $195 billion in American agricultural products in 2020, USDA Chief Economist Robert Johansson said at the agency’s recent Agriculture Outlook Forum.
The forecast reflects an increase of what USDA information shows is $59 billion over 2019.
Canada is expected to remain the nation’s the lead agricultural export market, with exports forecast at $21.5 billion, Johansson said.
China exports are forecast at $14 billion, $4 billion more than 2019, while Mexico is expected to export $19.8 billion, he said. Mexican exports represent a $1.2 billion increase over 2019.
China’s purchases from the United States are up yhis year 150 percent over 2018, when trade disputes were under way, he said. Ag exports to China are now part of “phase one” of a United States-China trade deal that reduces U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and boosts Chinese purchases of American farm, energy and manufactured goods, Johansson said.
Exports to China are this year also expected to compensate for a swine flu-related shortfall of 11 million metric tons of pork production, he said.
The shortfall includes reductions in production and consumption and a lack of global exports, he added.
Pork production is nevertheless forecast to increase by only 1 percent over 2019, according to Johansson.
Most exporting countries, and particularly the European Union, in 2019 increased pork exports to China, he said.
Japan exports are likewise forecast down Johannson said, even with a new U.S.-Japan agreement that helps to reduce what he said are some $7 billion in tariffs.
U.S. exports have over the past five years faced increased foreign competition, he said.
The European Union in 2019 established a free trade agreement with Japan.
Brazil is for its part expanding and double-cropping soybean acres.
The country’s second corn crop has overtaken its first season crop, Johansson said.
Acreages are down by .2 million for wheat and are up by 4.3 million for corn and 9 million for soybeans, bringing total acreages for each to 45 million, 94 million and 85 million, respectively.
U.S. soybean production is projected at 4.2 billion bushels, 18 percent above the 2019-20 marketing year and with a yield forecast of 49.8 bushels per acre, according to the USDA.
U.S. soybean exports are projected at 2.05 billion bushels, up 225 million from 2019-20.
Increasing global import demand, particularly from China, is expected in the wake of two years of decline to support more exports and help recover U.S. market share.
U.S. corn production and domestic use is projected at a record 15.5 billion bushels, 13 percent more than 2019, and with a yield projection of 178.5 bushels per acre, according to the USDA.
Total corn supplies, at 17.4 billion bushels, are also forecast to reach a record peak.
Corn exports are up 375 million bushels to 2.1 billion, reflecting growth expectations and continued competition from exporters such as Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine, according to the USDA.
Trade agreements with Canada, Mexico, China and Japan cover more than half of American agricultural exports, Johansson said.
The global demand for commodities is expected to be especially strong in emerging markets, he said.
India, Indonesia and Russia have also emerged as important traders in the global agricultural market, according to the USDA.